AGP Executive Report

Baltic Security Boost: NATO’s Multinational Brigade in Latvia, led by Canada, has reached full operational readiness, bringing together units from 14 countries and targeting 3,500 troops, with Canada providing most of the force and key air assets. Escalation Pressure: At the same time, NATO-Russia tensions keep rising in the region, with reports pointing to Russia’s focus on influencing politics in the Baltics and to NATO jets being scrambled after drone incidents. Civil Defence Updates: Latvia is also tightening how it communicates air threats, switching alerts into clear “Yellow” and “Orange” levels via cell broadcasts—so residents know when to act immediately. Lithuania Drone Search: Lithuania’s search for the drone that triggered alerts continues, with authorities asking residents not to touch anything suspicious and to share any footage. Energy & Industry: In the background, the EU backs a €1.3bn hydrogen push in Germany, linking public support to cross-border infrastructure and industrial decarbonisation.

Baltic Security Flash: Lithuania’s drone hunt is still ongoing after a suspected Belarus-linked UAV triggered air alerts and shelter orders in Vilnius and nearby districts; the Armed Forces commander says the search paused overnight and resumed with helicopters and up to 100 troops, with residents asked to share any footage. Counter-Drone Drills: The wider context is growing drone pressure across the region, with NATO-linked exercises like FlyTrap 5.0 in Lithuania testing counter-UAS tactics and even 3D-printed battlefield parts. Transport & Emissions: For summer travel, LTG Link’s “Palangos Link” combines train to Kretinga with a bus to Palanga—now running daily, with extra stops and onboard Wi‑Fi/charging to make seaside trips easier and more sustainable. Crypto & Compliance: ADGM in Abu Dhabi granted Bitexen permissions for a regulated trading venue and custody for virtual assets—another sign of tightening rules. Wildlife Policy Fight: Ten EU countries push for an “open season” on cormorants, arguing fish-stock damage—while conservationists warn it could undo hard-won protections.

Drone Alert in Lithuania: Lithuania’s armed forces say they’ve inspected about 70% of the search area after a drone triggered air-raid warnings near Vilnius and forced President Gitanas Nausėda and PM Inga Ruginienė to shelters; Gen. Raimundas Vaikšnoras says the remaining area is near the Belarus border around Varėna and urges residents not to touch anything suspicious while helicopters and reconnaissance drones continue the hunt. Baltic Security Pressure: The incident sits in a wider pattern of drone incursions and NATO-Russia tensions, with EU leaders stressing that threats to one member state are threats to the whole bloc. Nuclear Signalling: Russia and Belarus are also running a joint nuclear drill, adding to fears of escalation across Eastern Europe. EU Environment Fight: Ten EU countries push to loosen protections for the cormorant under the Birds Directive, arguing for more control over fish-eating birds. Clean Energy Finance: The EIB Group approved €6bn for clean energy, resilient agriculture and competitiveness, including grid upgrades and seed R&D.

Baltic Security Shock: Lithuania’s Vilnius went into shelter mode after a suspected drone alert linked to Belarus, with NATO jets ordered to intercept but unable to find the target; the search later expanded with helicopter and up to 100 troops, while EU leaders doubled down on unity against drone threats. Nuclear Signaling: Russia staged major nuclear readiness drills, deploying nuclear-capable missiles and munitions as NATO tensions over Ukraine and Baltic security intensify. Nature Under Pressure: A push is growing in the EU to loosen protections on the cormorant—10+ countries want an “open season” under the Birds Directive, arguing fish and aquaculture losses are too high. Money & Crypto Watch: Baltic financial intelligence units published a joint look at money-laundering risks, noting different risk profiles and ongoing concerns around cross-border digital services and crypto-linked correspondent activity. Tech & Industry: ADGM in Abu Dhabi granted Bitexen approvals for a regulated trading facility and custody for virtual assets; meanwhile, Baltic deep tech keeps accelerating, with defence emerging as the fastest-growing slice.

Counter-drone alert in Lithuania: Lithuania’s leaders and residents were rushed to shelters after a suspected drone threat near Vilnius, with NATO jets ordered to intercept but unable to find it in time—prompting an “air danger” warning and airport disruption. Baltic security pressure: The incident sits in a wider pattern of drone incursions and jamming-linked navigation problems across the region, with EU leaders stressing that threats to one member state are threats to all. Defense industry momentum: AEVEX’s Q1 call points to fast-growing unmanned systems demand, while Project Flytrap 5.0 in Lithuania tested how troops detect and respond to drone swarms. Deep tech spotlight: A new Baltic Deep Tech report says deep tech has shifted from niche to the region’s defining innovation force, with defense tech the fastest-growing slice. Circular economy win: Lithuania-linked packaging deposit progress continues across the region, aiming to boost returns of plastic, glass and metal. Second-hand fashion impact: Vinted reports €10.8bn earned by sellers in 2025 and big savings for buyers—another push toward lower-consumption lifestyles.

Baltic Security Shock: NATO jets scrambled and Lithuania’s leaders were moved to shelters after a drone warning near Vilnius, with the airport briefly closed and residents told to take cover—while EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Russia’s public threats “completely unacceptable,” stressing that an attack on one member is a threat to the whole Union. EU Policy Pressure: A new study suggests universal free school meals can cut out-of-school suspensions, adding fuel to Europe’s push for more inclusive discipline. Fur Ban Standoff: Citizens’ groups are again urging the European Commission to deliver a credible response to the Fur Free Europe initiative after years of delay. Circular Packaging Move: Moldova appoints an administrator to roll out a deposit-return system for plastic, glass and metal packaging from 2027, aiming to boost returns and cut litter. Lithuania in the EU Recovery Track: The Commission greenlights Lithuania’s sixth NextGenerationEU payment request (€178m), tied to public-sector digitalisation and transparency reforms.

Pesticide Rollback: The EU is failing to cut pesticide use, and the latest push is even more worrying: the Commission is considering approving most pesticides permanently to reduce burdens on companies—sparking fresh resistance from campaign groups warning it weakens the link between pesticide use, health, and ecosystem damage. Baltic Security Tensions: A NATO jet shot down a Ukrainian drone over Estonia, with accusations of heavy electronic warfare and renewed fears that instability is edging closer to NATO’s border. Lithuania in the EU Pipeline: The Commission has greenlit Lithuania’s sixth Recovery and Resilience Facility payment request (€178m), tied to public-sector digital tools, transparency, and reforms. Baltic Investment Momentum: Baltic private equity and venture capital funds have €1.4bn ready for new investments, with fundraising up sharply last year. Counter-Drone Focus: Lithuania hosted Project Flytrap 5.0, testing how allied forces tackle drone swarms in realistic conditions. Single-Use Plastics Check: The EU is also reporting on whether member states are meeting the Single-Use Plastics Directive for food containers and cups.

Ukraine Grain Forensics: Ukraine says it can now trace tens of millions of tons of grain and oilseeds shipped from occupied territories, using seed-bank samples and a Lithuania-based testing hub—built with UK methodology—to confirm origins even when paperwork is falsified. Lithuania Funding Push: The EU Commission has cleared Lithuania’s sixth NextGenerationEU payment request (€178m), tied to public-sector digital tools, healthcare quality dashboards, and electricity grid transparency. Green Agriculture Aid: Brussels also approved €100m in Lithuanian state aid for investment in agriculture, with conditions aimed at better soil, lower resource use, and ammonia pollution cuts. Baltic Security & Tech: Norway joined the EU Baltic Sea Region strategy as a full member, while Lithuania’s airspace dispute with Belarus continues after Vilnius submitted more ICAO materials on weather-balloon violations. Plastics Watch: The Commission reports progress on cutting single-use plastic food containers and cups—while also showing the scale of what’s still on the market.

Lithuania’s EU funding win: The European Commission has cleared €100m in Lithuanian state aid to back investments across agriculture—using loans to plug a market financing gap, with projects tied to EU strategic goals like better soil, less resource use, climate adaptation, lower ammonia pollution, and stronger animal welfare. EU recovery momentum: Lithuania also got the green light for its sixth RRF payment request—€178m—linked to public-sector digitalisation, transparency, and reforms including updates to the minimum income scheme and publishing forward-looking grid capacity data. Aviation under pressure: Lithuania submitted more materials to ICAO alleging Belarus-linked hybrid attacks via weather balloons that repeatedly disrupt Vilnius Airport operations and threaten civilian flights. Cyber and security: ESET reports FrostyNeighbor (Ghostwriter) is running a fresh Ukraine-focused campaign using malicious PDFs, JavaScript, and scheduled tasks to keep access. Regional cooperation: Norway became a full member of the EU Baltic Sea Strategy, expanding coordination as security and resilience stay top of the agenda.

EU Funding Boost: The European Commission has greenlit Lithuania’s sixth Recovery and Resilience Facility payment request—€178m—after finding Lithuania met 10 milestones and 8 targets, including public digital tools for healthcare quality, tax/customs analytics, and new rules to strengthen the minimum income scheme plus a push for forward-looking electricity grid capacity data. Future Homes Debate: Civinity founder Deividas Jacka argues that “homes in 2100” should work like invisible living systems—while raising the question of whether comfort or control will dominate. Energy Security Watch: Analysts warn that a deeper Strait of Hormuz crisis could tighten global oil and fertiliser supplies, lifting prices and hitting food and sowing decisions. Air Defence Update: Saab unveiled the Bolide 2 missile for Lithuania-relevant RBS 70 NG short-range air defence, with deliveries planned for 2027. Counter-Drone Training in Lithuania: Project Flytrap 5.0 continues to test how forces detect and defeat drone swarms in realistic conditions. Digital Power Pressure: A new report says datacentres already consume about 6% of electricity in the UK and US, with Lithuania flagged as facing higher grid burdens. Border Smuggling: Lithuanian border guards report cigarette smuggling using weather balloons and drones, with multiple arrests and large seizures.

Counter-Drone Focus: A major U.S.-led counter-UAS push in Lithuania (Project Flytrap 5.0) is wrapping up after testing dozens of technologies in realistic force-on-force scenarios, with soldiers learning to spot drone threats by sound and integrate new systems into everyday tactics. Energy Pressure: New research says datacentres already take about 6% of electricity in the UK and US, with AI growth raising grid strain and sparking local resistance. EU Climate Signal: Eurostat reports EU greenhouse-gas emissions rose in Q4 2025, led by power and transport-related sectors. Lithuania Border Reality: Lithuanian authorities report continued smuggling attempts along the Belarus border, including cigarettes moved via weather balloons and drones. Local Housing & Cities: Lithuania’s environment chancellor highlighted housing as a climate and city-building priority at the World Urban Forum in Baku, pointing to renovation gains and stronger municipal planning. Tech & Culture: A new on-device text-to-speech model expands to 31 languages, while Eurovision’s Vienna finale is driving fresh attention across Europe.

Poland–Belarus Border Pressure: Poland’s “Iron Division” is being deployed along the Belarus border as Warsaw warns Russia and Belarus are pushing illegal migrants as a destabilisation tool—soldiers face freezing patrols and violent attempts to breach the line. Lithuanian Diplomacy: Lithuania’s environment chancellor praised Azerbaijan’s support for Ukraine reconstruction, linking it to building safer, more inclusive cities. Housing Crunch in the EU: EU regions warn affordable housing has become a defining social and political fault line, with rents and prices rising faster than wages and short-term rentals adding pressure. Counter-Drone Training in Lithuania: NATO-aligned forces are testing how to fight drone swarms in realistic conditions through Project Flytrap 5.0, including new counter-UAS systems and tactics. Energy Demand Watch: A new report says data centres now use about 6% of electricity in the UK and US, raising alarms about grid strain as AI demand grows. Cyber Threats: ESET reports the Belarus-linked FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter group is running fresh spear-phishing attacks on Ukrainian government targets. Smuggling on the Border: Lithuanian border guards intercepted cigarette smuggling via weather balloons and also uncovered a large stash in a van, with arrests made.

Counter-Drone Drills in Lithuania: The U.S. and UK wrapped up Project Flytrap 5.0 near Pabradė, testing more than 20 counter-drone systems in realistic force-on-force scenarios—because “buzzing” drones are changing how soldiers patrol and fight. Energy Pressure from AI: New research says datacentres now use about 6% of electricity in the UK and US, with community pushback often starting once demand tops 5%, while “zombie” services waste power. EU Emissions Tick Up: Eurostat reports a 0.9% rise in EU greenhouse gases in Q4 2025, led by electricity and transport, while households cut emissions by 2%. Lithuania–Belarus Tensions: Lithuania protested a May 13 Belarus airspace violation that forced temporary restrictions around Vilnius Airport, and border guards also intercepted cigarette smuggling via weather balloons. Local Climate Resilience: A new index ranks capitals by heat and flood buffering, with Stockholm among the more resilient. Housing Stress Across Europe: Affordable homes are slipping out of reach from Barcelona to Amsterdam, with short-term rentals and investment adding pressure.

Counter-Drone Drills in Lithuania: Project Flytrap 5.0 wrapped up near Pabradė, with nearly 1,000 U.S., U.K. and partner troops testing how to detect, jam and defeat drone swarms in realistic force-on-force conditions—pushing counter-UAS tech from individual soldiers up to squadron-level coordination. Regional Diplomacy: Jordan’s Ayman Safadi met Estonia’s president and leaders to deepen cooperation on IT, tourism, investment, cybersecurity and defence, while also briefing on the worsening West Bank situation. Energy Pressure from AI: New research says datacentres now use about 6% of electricity in the UK and US, with grid delays and “zombie” unused services adding strain. Carbon Up in Europe: Eurostat reports EU emissions rose in Q4 2025, led by power supply and transport. Lithuanian Border Crackdown: Weather-balloon cigarette smuggling continues—guards intercepted another shipment and detained a collector. Eurovision Tonight: The 2026 grand final is set in Vienna, with the UK’s Look Mum No Computer among the acts.

Eurovision Tonight: The 2026 Grand Final is in Vienna with 25 acts competing, including Lithuania’s entry and the UK’s quirky “Look Mum No Computer” (Sam Battle) aiming for a first UK win since 1997. Carbon Pulse in Europe: New Eurostat data shows EU greenhouse-gas emissions rose in Q4 2025 (+0.9%), driven most by electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning (+7.2%) and transport/storage (+1.3%), while households cut emissions (-2.0%). Counter-Drone Reality Check (Lithuania): Project Flytrap 5.0 wrapped in Lithuania after testing 20+ counter-UAS systems in force-on-force scenarios, pushing soldiers to treat the sky as a danger zone. Belarus Tensions at the Border: Lithuania protested a May 13 Belarus airspace violation that forced temporary Vilnius Airport restrictions, as smugglers keep using weather balloons to move cigarettes. Cyber Pressure: ESET reports FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter has resumed attacks on Ukrainian government targets with spear-phishing PDFs and updated delivery tricks. airBaltic Winter Boost: New Riga–Turin and Vilnius–Geneva routes launch in winter 2027 for weekly Saturday service.

Eurovision Finale: Eurovision 2026 hits its grand final in Vienna on Saturday with 25 acts, including Lithuania, chasing the glass microphone; the UK’s entry is the quirky tech-inventor act Look Mum No Computer, aiming for a first UK win since 1997. Lithuania–Belarus Tensions: Lithuania has protested a Belarus airspace violation after an incident forced temporary restrictions near Vilnius Airport, calling it a serious breach and hybrid attack. Drone Warfare in Lithuania: The US-led Flytrap exercise continues to spotlight counter-drone tactics, including soldiers learning to “listen for the buzz” and integrating counter-UAS systems into real force-on-force scenarios. Cyber Threats: ESET reports the Belarus-linked FrostyNeighbor/Ghostwriter group is back, using spear-phishing PDFs and trickier delivery steps to target Ukrainian government orgs. AI and Artists: A survey finds 99% of professional visual artists dislike generative AI, with many saying it’s already undercut income and career security. Travel Network: airBaltic adds winter routes—Riga–Turin and Vilnius–Geneva—starting Jan 2027 for weekly Saturday service.